The Early Mover Test: 5 Questions I Ask Before Entering Any Market

The early mover test is the five-question filter I run before I commit time or money to any market. Every market I entered early, from crowdfunded streaming to hoverboards to AI, cleared all five questions before I made a move.

Most people wait until an opportunity is obvious. By then, the window is closed and the margins are gone. However, moving early only works if you can tell a real opening from a passing trend. That is what this test is for.

Why an Early Mover Test Matters

Being early is not the same as being right. I learned that the hard way. Some of my best years came from moving before the crowd, and some of my hardest lessons came from timing I could not control. As a result, I stopped trusting excitement and started trusting a checklist.

The test does not predict the future. Instead, it forces honest answers before emotion takes over. If a market fails even one question, I wait or walk away.

The Five Questions of the Early Mover Test

1. Is the problem real but widely unsolved?

Most people talk about the problem but accept it. The early mover finds it unacceptable. If customers already complain about it and nobody has fixed it well, that is the first green light.

2. Is the existing solution painful or too expensive?

If the current fix is broken, the replacement market is already waiting. For example, actors were recording auditions on phones against bedroom walls before self-tape studios existed. That pain is what made The Creation Station Studios possible.

3. Is the enabling technology ready but still under the radar?

The infrastructure exists, but only a small percentage of people know how to use it. This is where the advantage lives. When everyone can deploy the technology, the edge disappears.

4. Are early movers already winning quietly?

Somewhere, someone is already benefiting. They are just not loud about it yet. Quiet winners are proof that the model works before the headlines arrive.

5. Is the mainstream still skeptical or unaware?

Skepticism is the signal. If everyone already agrees, the window is closed. In contrast, when smart people still roll their eyes, there is usually room to move.

How Past Markets Scored

Every market below passed all five questions before I committed:

• 2013: crowdfunded streaming
• 2014: Vine influencer marketing
• 2014: hoverboards
• 2014: Retail the Series
• 2015: Barber Backpack® and Barber Rig®
• 2017: The Creation Station Studios®
• 2017: Bitcoin and Cardano
• 2022: Plopjoy and AI for business

Passing the test did not make every one of them a long-term winner. Still, each one was a real opening, and each one taught me something I now use with every business I advise.

Use the Early Mover Test on Your Own Idea

Write your idea at the top of a page and answer the five questions honestly. If you cannot answer one, that is your homework before you spend a dollar. If it passes all five, move fast, because the window will not stay open.

Want a second set of eyes on it? Book a consultation and we will run your idea through the early mover test together. You can also read the full story behind these markets, or see how Plopjoy helps businesses build on AI today.